Almond Market Objective Forecast

2022 Crop & Market Conditions - from CCF Newsletter sent on July 5, 2022

The objective crop estimate for conventional almonds is due to release Friday, July 8, 2022. It represents the final prediction regarding the expected size of the 2022 crop. May’s subjective forecast of 2.8B pounds seems to have been received by the industry as a reasonable number, and has not moved new crop pricing much. It would likely take a predicted crop 2.6B pounds or less to have a strong firming effect on the market, but that remains to be seen - given that the objective estimate is a sampling of trees and we know there is significant damage in some areas.

Over the past three years, the objective estimate has been equal to (2020) or significantly below (2019, 2021) the subjective forecast. Many customers have taken some or all of their 2023 coverage after the May subjective forecast to hedge against what happened last year when a low objective estimate quickly drove the market higher.

Next week will be the last opportunity to avoid this risk, so please reach out if you would like to lock in any remaining current crop needs or take some risk off the table for 2023 needs.