Almond Market Conditions - Jan 2024
What is the almond market doing now?
We've crossed the threshold of 2024 into a new year. Below, we share our latest insights on the current conventional and organic almond markets.
Conventional Almond Market - Jan 2024
Data from October and November has shown strong shipment numbers, carried by exports. Crop receipts continue to lag and are starting to confirm the short crop and insect damage that has been discussed since March/April of 2023. These factors, if sustained, could do an effective job at reducing the carry-out into the 2024 crop year and possibly bring supply and demand into greater balance.
Looking ahead to the upcoming growing season, there has been very minimal precipitation through the start of 2024. Sierra snow packs are at 25% of average for this time of year and even with a small system the past two days, there is not much looming on the 10-day forecast. Reservoirs are looking pretty good, but the past few years have illustrated how devastating even one really dry year can be to water availability and it may create a conservative approach by water districts toward allocations.
If we get another year with really strong late winter systems - February to March - then bloom and pollination conditions become uncertain.
What does it mean for markets?
So far, all of these factors combine to create price firming conditions for conventional almonds. There are still a lot of almonds to move to reach market equilibrium, so there is some selling pressure, but we are just about 6 weeks away from the start of bloom. A poor bloom will create a very “short” mindset for growers and firming pressure could sharply increase. If you have remaining 2024 needs, now could be a good time to try and find coverage. The upside price potential seems to outweigh the downside potential, but we never know for certain. Ideal bloom conditions and a 3B+ lb 2024 crop could keep the market in the same position as it currently stands.
Organic Almond Market - Jan 2024
We have fewer data points for California organic almonds, but overall sentiment is that there is an oversupply as anticipated demand has not materialized over the past few years as increased production has come online. Prices for organic almonds are now well under 2x conventional prices and present a great opportunity for brands to market organic almond products.
